CEBAN: Moscow and Washington will try to reach agreement on Moldova and Ukraine
Author: Serghei Ceban
The United States of America and Russia did not find significant benefits following military confrontations. For both countries it is easier to take a time out to solve their own problems than to fuel geopolitical confrontations. It is the opinion of Regional Trends Analytics expert Sergei Ceban, expressed on the eve of Chisinau’s visit to US President John Bolton’s US National Security Adviser.
Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine are the traditional region of geopolitical confrontations between the Russian Federation and the West: the US, NATO and EU. In the last 30 years, two of the three countries have been through a difficult period: first the war in Transnistria, and over 20 years the fate of this region has been repeated by Ukraine with Donbas and Crimea. Both conflicts are the “headache” of Moscow and Bruxelles, but they do not lose their current status even for Washington’s strategic military interests. The assumption that John Bolton’s tournament is a prologue to the next act of the long process of division of this region into the spheres of influence of Russia and NATO is absolutely logical.
The theory fits perfectly into the context and also fits with the visit of the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Şoigu in Moldova. The purpose of Bolton’s journey may be different. It is not excluded that the main reason for the current tactical actions of Moscow and Washington is to be a certain “freezing” of tension under understandable conditions for both sides.
The struggle between the United States and Russia for regional influence was more than a tribute to the established logic and developed almost from despair. Both Moscow and Washington have found no other solution than to maintain the logic of mutual restraint. Eventually, the situation reached a deadlock, after which either a direct collision or negotiations would have to follow. The liberation of a small and poor country from the domination of an oligarch is an ideal goal that can justify the union of anyone with anyone. Among other things, the destruction of the ammunition in Cobasna, by the way, is a good reason for this union, especially given that the idea was promoted several years by the US and EU. Thus, it will still be out of the ordinary, but at the same time logical if during his visit, Bolton will support the Russian initiatives. What will happen in reality, we will see, but now the US and Russia have to prove their good intentions.
All the players in Europe need a break. In the US elections are coming, the EU has not found a solution to the systemic problems in the area, and for Russia it is critical to revive the economy. At other times, an outside threat may have distracted attention from internal issues. Only with the evolution of the information space, this trick works more and more poorly. It is much more difficult to “warm up” people with external threats, and the internal problems are not solved by themselves.
Under these conditions, new solutions are needed, and this means that the US and Russia will try to reach an agreement in the case of Moldova and Ukraine.
